There is a 50-metre mural of him on the wall of the Southport & Birkdale Sports Club, a 1,000-square-metre portrait of his face outside the Liverpool ONE shopping centre, and a crocheted version of him perched on a post-box near Hillside station. This week, Tommy Fleetwood does not need an introduction on Merseyside. He needs a Claret Jug.

The 154th Open Championship begins on Thursday 16 July at Royal Birkdale, the dune-framed Southport links that sits barely 20 minutes from the house where Fleetwood grew up. For a player who watched his first Open here as a seven-year-old in 1998, chasing Tiger Woods for an autograph and having to settle for Colin Montgomerie’s, the symbolism is almost too neat. No Englishman has been crowned Champion Golfer of the Year since Sir Nick Faldo in 1992. No English player has won The Open on home soil since Tony Jacklin in 1969. Fleetwood, the local boy made good, carries both droughts on his shoulders and a whole town on his back.

From nearly man to FedEx Cup champion

For years Fleetwood was golf’s most accomplished nearly man. He racked up 30 top-five finishes on the PGA Tour, half a dozen of them runner-up results, before he finally broke through. The dam burst at the 2025 Tour Championship at East Lake, where a closing 68 for 18-under 262 delivered a three-shot win over Patrick Cantlay and Russell Henley: his first PGA Tour title in his 164th start, and with it the FedEx Cup and its $10 million prize.

That victory was the centrepiece of a golden late-2025 run. He was a pivotal member of the European side that won the Ryder Cup 15–13 at Bethpage Black, going unbeaten alongside Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose in the team sessions before losing his singles to Justin Thomas. He then won the DP World India Championship in October by two strokes over Keita Nakajima, and pushed Aaron Rai to a play-off in Abu Dhabi in November. For a while, the winning that had eluded him for a decade became almost routine.

A steady, if unspectacular, 2026

The reigning FedEx Cup champion arrives at Birkdale as world No. 9 in the Official World Golf Ranking, down from the career-high No. 3 he reached in December 2025, and the leap forward many expected after that breakthrough has not quite materialised. Fleetwood has been consistently good rather than dominant in 2026, banking six top-10 finishes but no victory. The best of them clustered in the first half of the year: tied-fourth at Pebble Beach, tied-fifth at the Truist Championship, and peaked with a tie for fourth at the Memorial in June at 10-under, his best result of the season.

He warmed up for The Open with a solid week at the Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club, finishing tied for 13th behind Tom Kim, who closed with a bogey-free 6-under 64 to post 17-under 263. Fleetwood has finished no worse than 14th in his last five worldwide starts, the mark of a player in reliable, tournament-ready touch, even if the killer edge has been missing.

The stat that will decide it: the putter

Fleetwood’s game has long been built on elite ball-striking and one of the very best short games in the world. Around the greens he is exceptional: he ranked first on the PGA Tour in strokes gained around the green (0.900) earlier in 2026 and was still second (0.712) by the Masters. His tee-to-green profile is comfortably top-tier.

The swing factor, as it has been for much of his career, is the putter. Through the spring his strokes-gained putting was actively costing him, a -0.263 mark that ranked 120th on tour, and it has been the one department separating him from genuine contention. The encouraging news for the galleries is that the flat-stick has warmed up markedly in recent weeks, dragging his season number back up towards the tour’s mid-pack. If Fleetwood can putt even to tour average at Birkdale, his ball-striking and short game make him a serious threat.

Course knowledge, with an asterisk

The romantic story is that Fleetwood knows every blade of grass at Royal Birkdale from sneaking on as a boy. He has gently punctured that myth himself, admitting he only slipped through the bushes to play the old fifth hole “once or twice”, Birkdale was “hallowed turf” that the locals largely admired from the outside. And the course has changed dramatically since it last hosted in 2017, with all 18 holes altered, the par-70 layout stretched slightly to 7,223 yards, and a wholesale redesign of the fifth, 14th and 15th holes.

Still, his links pedigree matters. He finished tied for 27th here in 2017, undone by an opening 76 before a Friday 69 he called one of the best rounds of his life, and was runner-up at the 2019 Open at Royal Portrush. He also has a top-10 from Royal Liverpool in 2023. As a Southport man raised flighting the ball into coastal wind, this is precisely the examination that should suit him.

The context: favourite’s weight, home comfort

Fleetwood is among the leading home fancies with the bookmakers. He was priced at +1500 on FanDuel entering the week, level with compatriot Matt Fitzpatrick and behind only defending champion Scottie Scheffler (+700) and Masters winner Rory McIlroy (+850). For those weighing up the field, the leading UK betting sites have him prominent in the outright market, a reflection of both his form and the sentiment attached to the homecoming. (Disclosure: this is a reference link to a betting-sites comparison page.)

He is drawn alongside Jon Rahm and 2017 Birkdale champion Jordan Spieth for the first two rounds, a marquee group that guarantees vast galleries. Fleetwood, characteristically, refuses to see the pressure as a burden. “It’s an absolute dream to play here in my hometown in front of people that are all here to support me, there are only positives really,” he said in his pre-tournament press conference. “I just think I am the lucky one that gets to have home support and use that as really positive fuel.”

Whether that fuel carries him to a first major on the most sentimental stage of his life is the question that will hold Merseyside, and much of the country, captive until Sunday evening. “Dreams do come true,” Fleetwood said. “Mine might come true; it might not.” Rarely has a British sportsman had a better opportunity to find out.