Financial companies are quick to point out – usually in the small contract print – that past performance is no indicator of future outcomes.
Scottie Scheffler’s triumph in The Open Championship at Royal Portrush solidifies his perch on top of professional golf. His placement there is likely to remain for a period of time. How long? No one can say with total certainty.
Predicting the future is nothing more than an educated guess. The usual fumble happens when those making such prognostications overplay the past and simply believe that such achievements will simply repeat themselves again and again.
Take Tiger Woods as a classic example in overstating the past and thinking such past achievements will continue to happen with regularity.
When Woods won the 2008 US Open in a playoff against Rocco Mediate the win marked his 14th major championship at age 32. Even though Tiger would then be sidelined with surgery for the rest of the year to deal with a broken leg the overwhelming sentiment was that when he returned to full-time play, he would easily secure the needed five majors to surpass the record of eighteen by Jack Nicklaus.
Guess what?
It took Woods just under eleven years to secure his 15th major when he won his fifth green jacket at the Masters in 2019 and at age 49 his career in winning future majors is all but ended.
Go back in golf history and you will find other situations that are fairly similar. Arnold Palmer was 34 after winning his seventh major and then record fourth green jacket at Augusta. The future looked totally promising for The King and many believed he would get to a final total of double-digit majors.
Guess what?
Arnold never won another major.
The talented Seve Ballesteros was 32 when he won the 1988 Open Championship for his fifth major and third Claret Jug with a rousing final round 65. The Spaniard was the number one player in the world and the belief was that additional major wins were all but certain to happen.
Guess what?
Seve never won another major.
Earlier this year Rory McIlroy finally snapped a nearly eleven-year streak in not winning a major when triumphing at the Masters. When McIlroy won his fourth major at age 25 in 2014 the common belief was that he would win several afterwards given that only Woods and Jack Nicklaus had won that many majors at such a young age. That gap in time until Rory won this year shows what can happen when “sure-fire” predictions are made.
Scheffler joined the PGA Tour in 2020. Since that time, he’s played in 22 majors. The 29-year-old has won four with two happening this year.
All together he’s had fifteen top-ten finishes and nine top-five placements along with seventeen PGA Tour titles.
Some are already comparing what Scheffler has achieved to the superlative career of Woods and frankly the link between the two is just not plausible. By the age of 29, Tiger Woods had won ten major championships. He also had 40 tour wins and held the world #1 ranking for 334 weeks at that point.
To be clear the lofty number of ten majors has only been achieved by four golfers — Jack Nicklaus, Woods, Bob Jones and to be charitable Walter Hagen since the Western Open was deemed by many as a major event at that time.
Scheffler has a number of key assets working in his favor. His home life is settled with wife Meredith and they both share a son Bennett. Will more children be coming? That’s likely. Scheffler is a man of faith and is grounded through a solid family background via his mother and father. In addition, his golf foundation has been brought into full focus via his long-time instructor Randy Smith. Scheffler also has Ted Scott as his long-time caddie. Given the foundation the Texan has in place the likelihood for continued successes looks highly promising.
The unknown, but potentially career-wrecking factors, are still out there. They include injuries and the deep-down passion to excel. In the former there’s no way to see what can happen via injuries. Clearly, the cumulative surgeries curtailed Tiger’s capacity to play at the highest of levels. Scheffler, to date, only had a minor situation when he cut his finger last Christmas when preparing food. The injury sidelined him for a time but is now in his rear-view mirror.
The will-to-win is a much tougher element to fully comprehend. Nicklaus and Woods, along with Ben Hogan, only saw fulfillment in winning. As Woods was famous in saying — “second place is the first loser.” Each of the aforementioned maintained that resolute passion for an extended period of time.
Scheffler has been extremely competitive since an early age and he’s stated in the clearest of terms that he comes to every event with one thing in mind – winning.
But as people age and other life responsibilities emerge the availability of time to prepare sufficiently for key golf events can prove to be a difficult task to a achieve.
Scheffler will not compete again till the FedEx Cup Play-offs begin next month. And then he will be on the USA Ryder Cup team seeking to regain the Cup at Bethpage in New York at the end of September.
Lasting legacies come from sustained superior play. Scheffler commands the stage now and there’s little to suggest he will take a detour from being a regular member of the victory club.
The next major will not happen for nine months when the Masters reconvenes. Scheffler has two green jackets and he will be looking to add a third. When the US Open is played next June at Shinnecock Hills he will seek to become the seventh member of the highly elite career Grand Slam club.
With each passing milestone the bar only rises. Scheffler is fully aware of this. Self-motivation is what will determine how far and how much more success he achieves. Predictions are simply that — predictions. They are not set in stone and certainly nothing is guaranteed.
Winning in Northern Ireland certainly takes Scheffler to another level. Capturing the Claret Jug and doing so in such a convincing manner lays the foundation for much more to happen in the years ahead.
Scheffler’s Superman show is fascinating to observe. Seeing how high he can soar. Right now – Superman is indestructible. Will it last?
Few people ever thought any golfer could have such a sustained high level in elite level pro golf once Woods left the scene.
Those doubting him run the real risk in looking foolish.
The Scheffler show is one all eyes will be watching.
Related: Discover Jack Nicklaus’ proudest golf course design in Ireland
